How much Verizon iPhone, Apple sell prior year? (Daringfireball.net)

Analysts are cooking the new carrier in their estimates of 2011, but underestimate sales

Wednesday, Doug Reid of Stifel Nicolaus raised his price target of Apple (AAPL) $390 per share, from $360) based in part on his "increased trust" a launch of Verizon (VZ) at the beginning of 2011 (mid-February is its best estimate).

Thursday, Merrill Lynch Scott Craig did likewise, raising its target to $420 (from $415) for similar reasons. "We anticipate a Verizon iPhone introduced at the beginning of the C2011", he wrote, "and we are now Verizon cooking in our estimates."

This is therefore how Verizon are cooked in? Surprisingly little.

"We anticipate a scenario of less than 10 million units to Verizon [Calendar] 2011," writes Craig, "even if we only added the 6 units and 8 million in 2011 and 2012, respectively."

Reid is even more cautious. It is only raise its 2011 iPhone sales estimates 63.3 million of 62.5 million or 800,000 units.

What is - this? This measly 800 000?

For reasons known only to themselves, analysts have been anticipating hard a Verizon iPhone are now occupied lowering expectations.

In June, James Ratcliffe Barclays Capital predicts that Verizon sell here 9 million next year. Last month, BMO Capital markets analysts talked about 8 million.

"In the past", writes Craig Merrill, "when the iPhone has been added to a second carrier in one country (France Norway Canada, UK, etc.), iPhone shipments increased almost 1: 1 with the Subscriber's database indicating little/no loss share the incumbent carrier." We are more conservative in our estimates, account held in the most recent competition increased Android devices and some cannibalization likely to AT & T. (T)

When though.

"I do not see why the number may not be the same as what is AT & T," says Horace the Asymco Dediu. "Why analysts low-ball is beyond me."